MLB Predictions: Breaking Down the 2012 Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves were a playoff team in 2011 until the final day of the season when they lost to the Philadelphia Phillies then were eliminated by the St Louis Cardinals in a one game playoff. After having a 9 1/2 game lead for the Wild Card on August 25th, the Braves blew their lead. There was good news for Atlanta though. Craig Kimbrel emerged as a closer and won the Rookie of the Year Award and newcomer Michael Bourn became the team’s table setter.
Looking forward to 2012 the Braves have some additional challenges to reach the playoffs. The National League East has improved dramatically. The Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals both made huge improvements while the Philadelphia Phillies look again to be the class of the division. Other than trading away Derek Lowe and not resigning Alex Gonzalez, the Braves have done nothing this offseason. The improved division could make it tough for the Braves to reach their 89 win total from a year before.
Tim Hudson is recovering from back surgery and could miss some time. When he does return, it is hard to say
how effective he will be. Chipper Jones will be 40 years old and is expected to be the teams number 3 hitter. He projects to hit around .280 with about 15 homeruns. Dan Uggla will bat 4th. His inconsistency matched with Jones’ age makes the middle of the lineup suspect. Freddie Freeman and Brian McCann should provide solid 5 and 6 hitters, but Jason Heyward is slated to bat 7th giving the team 3 left handers in a row. Role player Matt Diaz will help with this, but there are still question marks throughout the lineup. Heyward’s development could be one of the biggest factors in the Braves success in 2012. After finishing 2011 with a dismal .227 average and only 14 home runs, Atlanta needs him to step up and become the projected middle of the lineup hitter that he is projected to be.
Another question mark for the Braves will be the health of Jair Jurrjens. They need Jurrjens to pitch a full season and anchor a rotation that will probably include Tommy Hanson, Brandon Beachy, Mike Minor, and Randall Delgado until Hudson’s return. The bullpen has question marks as well. Will Kimbrel have a sophomore slump and do they have enough pieces to serve as set up men? Consistency in pitching could haunt the Braves all season in both the rotation and the bullpen.
While Michael Bourn is entering the prime of his career and should give the Braves one of the best leadoff hitters in the league, Martin Prado comes with questions. Will he be able to hit around the .300 mark again or will his .260 mark in 2011 predict what he hits in 2012? The Braves need both Bourn and Prado to get on base and put pressure on the opposing pitchers so that they make mistakes when pitching to Jones, Uggla, and Freeman. The Atlanta Braves come into 2012 a year older and not improved from their 2011 squad. With an improved division it stands to reason that they will take a step back. Look for the Braves to be a 84 win team in 2012 and finish in either second or third place out of the playoff picture. The long term prognosis of the Braves is no better. Their CEO announced a few weeks ago that they are not selling the team and have an “awful television contract” that is for 25 years. The team is being run more like a corporate business than a sports franchise where margins are more important than wins. Fans had better hold on tight to their glory days with Ted Turner and the teams of the 1990′s and early 2000′s.
Looking forward to 2012 the Braves have some additional challenges to reach the playoffs. The National League East has improved dramatically. The Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals both made huge improvements while the Philadelphia Phillies look again to be the class of the division. Other than trading away Derek Lowe and not resigning Alex Gonzalez, the Braves have done nothing this offseason. The improved division could make it tough for the Braves to reach their 89 win total from a year before.
Tim Hudson is recovering from back surgery and could miss some time. When he does return, it is hard to say
how effective he will be. Chipper Jones will be 40 years old and is expected to be the teams number 3 hitter. He projects to hit around .280 with about 15 homeruns. Dan Uggla will bat 4th. His inconsistency matched with Jones’ age makes the middle of the lineup suspect. Freddie Freeman and Brian McCann should provide solid 5 and 6 hitters, but Jason Heyward is slated to bat 7th giving the team 3 left handers in a row. Role player Matt Diaz will help with this, but there are still question marks throughout the lineup. Heyward’s development could be one of the biggest factors in the Braves success in 2012. After finishing 2011 with a dismal .227 average and only 14 home runs, Atlanta needs him to step up and become the projected middle of the lineup hitter that he is projected to be.Another question mark for the Braves will be the health of Jair Jurrjens. They need Jurrjens to pitch a full season and anchor a rotation that will probably include Tommy Hanson, Brandon Beachy, Mike Minor, and Randall Delgado until Hudson’s return. The bullpen has question marks as well. Will Kimbrel have a sophomore slump and do they have enough pieces to serve as set up men? Consistency in pitching could haunt the Braves all season in both the rotation and the bullpen.
While Michael Bourn is entering the prime of his career and should give the Braves one of the best leadoff hitters in the league, Martin Prado comes with questions. Will he be able to hit around the .300 mark again or will his .260 mark in 2011 predict what he hits in 2012? The Braves need both Bourn and Prado to get on base and put pressure on the opposing pitchers so that they make mistakes when pitching to Jones, Uggla, and Freeman. The Atlanta Braves come into 2012 a year older and not improved from their 2011 squad. With an improved division it stands to reason that they will take a step back. Look for the Braves to be a 84 win team in 2012 and finish in either second or third place out of the playoff picture. The long term prognosis of the Braves is no better. Their CEO announced a few weeks ago that they are not selling the team and have an “awful television contract” that is for 25 years. The team is being run more like a corporate business than a sports franchise where margins are more important than wins. Fans had better hold on tight to their glory days with Ted Turner and the teams of the 1990′s and early 2000′s.
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