Sunday, February 26, 2012
NL East the most competitive division?
According to Charlie Manuel of the Philadelphia Phillies, the NL East might be the most competitive division in baseball this year, which would be a major shift from the norm. Philadelphia is armed with Johnathan Papelbon and has most of its 2011 lineup back in the fold, minus Roy Oswalt, who wasn't a big part of the 2011 team because of his injury, but the rest of the NL East, namely the Braves, Nationals and Marlins are also major contenders. The Miami Marlins signed Jose Reyes, Heath Bell, Carlos Zambrano, Josh Johnson and Mark Buhlere, giving the Marlins one of the most lethal rotation in baseball for 2012, plus a very good closer. However, the Nationals have an even more impressive lineup, with Stephen Stratsburg, Gio Gonzales, and Edwin Jackson, along with hitter Ryan Zimmerman, outfielder Jayson Werth, and many other elite players. Last year, the Nationals finished with 80 wins, just a game under .500, and that was without Gonzales or Edwin Jackson. The Nationals are in contention with the Phillies for the title this year, and are just a few good players away, say, another two ace pitchers to complement the three ace pitchers they already have, and another power hitter, from being a once in a generation lienup, the kind of lineup that wins multiple championships and posts 100+ wins. With closer Storen on board, the Nats are in contention to win it all this year...but if they sign free-agent pitchers Cole Hamels and Matt Cain following the 2012 season, plus Mike Napoli from Texas if they let him go, the Nationals could become a colossal force on the field...how does a decade-long dynasty sound? The Nationals could pull it off. In the words of Charlie Manuel: "Yankees fans and Boston fans might argue it, but every team in the NL East is capable of beating them."
Saturday, February 25, 2012
Baseball Armageddon: 2012 season predicted to be one of the best ever
7 teams with 100+ wins
-Rays
-Phillies
-Yankees
Detroit Tigers
Los Angeles
Texas
Boston
Most Likely AL champion contenders
Texas Rangers (3rd time in a row!)
Los Angeles Angels (Best pitching rotation in more than 30 years, each pitcher has pitched more than 230 innings per season, plus they have Albert Pujols.)
New York Yankees (What else is new?)
Detroit Tigers (Verlander, Fielder and Cabrera. Need I say more?)
-Rays
-Phillies
-Yankees
Detroit Tigers
Los Angeles
Texas
Boston
Most Likely AL champion contenders
Texas Rangers (3rd time in a row!)
Los Angeles Angels (Best pitching rotation in more than 30 years, each pitcher has pitched more than 230 innings per season, plus they have Albert Pujols.)
New York Yankees (What else is new?)
Detroit Tigers (Verlander, Fielder and Cabrera. Need I say more?)
Thursday, February 23, 2012
World Series Fantasy Scenario #2
1998 Yankees vs. 1988 Mets, (assuming that injuries never held the Mets offense back)
Yankees Record: 114-48,
Mets Record: 126-36
Yankees: Starting rotation performed spectacularly all year, with David Wells throwing a perfect game and every pitcher racking up double-digit wins. Hitting power was colossal, with players like Paul O'Neil, Tino Martinez, Bernie Williams and Scott Brosius batting over .300, and Martinez hitting 28 home runs.
Mets: Best pitching staff in Mets history, only the 1968 Mets team struck more batters out in baseball history. More than 950 runs were scored in the 162-game season, with such a deep bench that even if a player was injured, another one would quickly take his place. Going into this fantasy series, the Mets have the most regular season wins of all time.
Synopsis-Unless some future matchup rises to this caliber, this series would likely have been the most colossal of all time. We'd be looking at a 7-game series for sure, with some of the most fearsome pitching duels, slugging wars and baserunning ever seen. This one would likely come down to the wire, to the very last pitch. Both closers, Mariano Rivera (NYY) and Randy Myers (NYM) were some of the best of all time. However, since these teams were a decade apart, they could never have played a World Series...but who knows? Two other, future teams could potentially rise to these sky-high levels, and when they do, you know I'll be watching.
Yankees Record: 114-48,
Mets Record: 126-36
Yankees: Starting rotation performed spectacularly all year, with David Wells throwing a perfect game and every pitcher racking up double-digit wins. Hitting power was colossal, with players like Paul O'Neil, Tino Martinez, Bernie Williams and Scott Brosius batting over .300, and Martinez hitting 28 home runs.
Mets: Best pitching staff in Mets history, only the 1968 Mets team struck more batters out in baseball history. More than 950 runs were scored in the 162-game season, with such a deep bench that even if a player was injured, another one would quickly take his place. Going into this fantasy series, the Mets have the most regular season wins of all time.
Synopsis-Unless some future matchup rises to this caliber, this series would likely have been the most colossal of all time. We'd be looking at a 7-game series for sure, with some of the most fearsome pitching duels, slugging wars and baserunning ever seen. This one would likely come down to the wire, to the very last pitch. Both closers, Mariano Rivera (NYY) and Randy Myers (NYM) were some of the best of all time. However, since these teams were a decade apart, they could never have played a World Series...but who knows? Two other, future teams could potentially rise to these sky-high levels, and when they do, you know I'll be watching.
World Series we Wish Happened.
1998 Yankees vs. 1998 Braves
Yankees Record: 114-48
Braves Record:106-56
7-game series (probably)
Starting pitchers for Yankees- David Cone, David Wells, Andy Pettite, Orlando Hernandez, Hideki Irabu
Starting pitchers for Braves- John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, Dennis Martinez, Kerry Ligtenburg
Synopsis-This matchup, had it occurred, would likely have been the biggest matchup of all time. One of the best NL teams in history by win percentage pitted against the best AL team in history by win percentage. The San Diego victory over the Braves should be the subject of a 48 Hours Mystery episode. No one, not even the Yankees, expected that they would be playing against San Diego and not Atlanta. One thing's for sure, the Yankees wouldn't have swept the 1998 Series against the murderous trio of John Smoltz, Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux, combined with the ace pitchers Dennis Martinez, still the only Latin-born player to toss a perfect game, and Kerry Lightenburg, the 1998 Atlanta Braves were still the only team to ever include 5 aces in a 5-man rotation. Combined with the hitting power of Chipper Jones, Mark DeRosa and various other hitters, they would have given the Yanks everything they had.
That's not to say that the Yankees had nothing to counter the Braves with, however. Their best hitters, Scott Brosius at third and Tino Martinez at first, as well as Jorge Posada, Andy Pettite, Mariano Rivera and Derek Jeter as their "Core Four," not to mention their fantastic starting rotation; David Wells pitched a perfect game that year and every pitcher posted double-digit wins, led by David Cone's 20. There wasn't a weakness on the Yankees team that year at all.
Alas, this "Baseball Armageddon" never happened, and the Yankees won their 24th championship that year. Oh, what a Series that would have been.
Yankees Record: 114-48
Braves Record:106-56
7-game series (probably)
Starting pitchers for Yankees- David Cone, David Wells, Andy Pettite, Orlando Hernandez, Hideki Irabu
Starting pitchers for Braves- John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, Dennis Martinez, Kerry Ligtenburg
Synopsis-This matchup, had it occurred, would likely have been the biggest matchup of all time. One of the best NL teams in history by win percentage pitted against the best AL team in history by win percentage. The San Diego victory over the Braves should be the subject of a 48 Hours Mystery episode. No one, not even the Yankees, expected that they would be playing against San Diego and not Atlanta. One thing's for sure, the Yankees wouldn't have swept the 1998 Series against the murderous trio of John Smoltz, Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux, combined with the ace pitchers Dennis Martinez, still the only Latin-born player to toss a perfect game, and Kerry Lightenburg, the 1998 Atlanta Braves were still the only team to ever include 5 aces in a 5-man rotation. Combined with the hitting power of Chipper Jones, Mark DeRosa and various other hitters, they would have given the Yanks everything they had.
That's not to say that the Yankees had nothing to counter the Braves with, however. Their best hitters, Scott Brosius at third and Tino Martinez at first, as well as Jorge Posada, Andy Pettite, Mariano Rivera and Derek Jeter as their "Core Four," not to mention their fantastic starting rotation; David Wells pitched a perfect game that year and every pitcher posted double-digit wins, led by David Cone's 20. There wasn't a weakness on the Yankees team that year at all.
Alas, this "Baseball Armageddon" never happened, and the Yankees won their 24th championship that year. Oh, what a Series that would have been.
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
Top 10 Mets teams of all time
Throughout the next few weeks, I will be doing some fun “look back’s” at various points of New York history. One of the first things I wanted to do is rank the best Mets teams of all time. I threw out where they finished, but rather the strength of the squad using both statistical, as well as some intangible factors.
1. 1988 - Cream of the crop in Mets history. Best pitching staff in team history as only the 1968 team gave up less runs in a 162 games season, and that was the year of the pitcher. David Cone won 20 games, Ron Darling had his best season, and how many teams could say Sid Fernandez was their fifth starter? Doc Gooden was beginning to decline, but still won 18 games. Unlike the ’86 title team they had a dominant closer as Randy Myers had 26 saves and a 1.72 ERA. Offensively they had two MVP candidates (Strawberry/McReynolds), and their bench was so deep that injuries to Keith Hernandez, and the steep decline by Gary Carter was offset by Dave Magadan, and the occasional Mackey Sasser start. Gregg Jefferies infused some life into the offense late that year (.321, 6, 17 in 118 PA). If this team performed offensively as they did in ’87 it would be the ’88 Mets, not ’98 Yankees, that won the most games in baseball history. They still won 100 games despite going 44-39 throughout the summer. How they lost to the Dodgers should be part of an A&E mystery series.
2. 1986- Do I need to wax poetic about this team? 108 wins, four starters with 15+ victories, and a lineup that scored over 700 runs for the first time in team history. This was Lenny Dykstra‘s best “non steroid” season (.822 OPS, more walks than strikeouts), Ray Knight had a bounce back year, and there was the ultimate super sub, Kevin Mitchell, off the bench. The 1989 National League MVP couldn’t crack this starting lineup. It wasn’t the best of seasons for Darryl Strawberry, but it didn’t matter. The reason why I put this team a notch below ’88 is because their overall staff wasn’t as strong. The difference between the ’88 team, and the next best, was a wide margin. Houston was the equal of the ’86 Mets, and the NLCS proved as much. If the ’88 team won a championship, especially over Oakland, this wouldn’t even be a debate.
3. 1987- If the pitching staff stayed healthy this might have been the best Mets team of all time. 823 runs scored was a team record held until 1999. Strawberry and Howard Johnson were 30/30 members, while Kevin McReynolds (29 homers, 95 RBI) wasn’t’ too shabby on both sides of the ball. This was the year of the juiced ball (precursor of the steroid era), as they hit 192 homers. Tim Teufel was an underrated member of this squad posting a .944 OPS with 14 homers and 61 RBI in just 350 plate appearances. The downfall was that every starting pitcher was injured at some point. Both Roger McDowell and Jesse Orosco struggled out of the bullpen as well. If not for journeyman Terry Leach winning 7 games in the rotation they may not have sniffed a pennant race with the Cardinals. Still, this is a very strong edition in team history. In my opinion, a baseball version of a Greek Tragedy.
4. 1969- I was tempted to drop this team down behind the ’99 club (a personal favorite), but the pitching is too good. Hall of Fame ace in Tom Seaver, Jerry Koosman‘s career year (17-9, 2.28), and a bullpen that included Ron Taylor, Tug McGraw, and Nolan Ryan. The issue is the offense, which averaged less than four runs a game. Cleon Jones was the only player to have a standout season, although midseason acquisition Donn Clendenon certainly did his part (11 homers, 37 RBI). This team won on its pitching staff, and the managing of Gil Hodges, who used the platoon masterfully.
5. 1999- One of my favorite all time teams. I will never forget what a fun summer it was as they went on a 55-27 run from June 4th to September 4th. Sure, the late September losing streak was painful, but it made that last weekend against the Pirates, and the one game playoff with Cincinnati, a worthwhile experience. Everyone remembers “the best infield ever,” but offensively this team was loaded with players that got on base. John Olerud and Rickey Henderson both had OBP over 42%, Mike Piazza hit 40 homers, Robin Ventura had a MVP season (32 homers, 117 RBI), and Edgardo Alfonzo hit 27 homers with 108 RBI. The key was the supporting cast as Roger Cedeno hit .313 with 66 stolen bases, Darryl Hamilton hit .339 after a July 31st trade from Colorado, Benny Agbayani had an .888 OPS, and Rey Ordonez drove in 60 runs from the eight hole. The pitching was spotty, but Al Leiter and Rick Reed were big game pitchers, and Kenny Rogers won five big games down the stretch. It was the work of the bullpen, anchored by Armando Benitez, who had arguably his best season in New York (14.8 strikeouts per nine innings) with 22 saves after John Franco went down with an injury. They were a hair away from forcing Game 7 against Atlanta, and would have had a better shot of beating the Yankees than the 2000 edition.
6. 2006- This team holds a special place in the hearts of Mets fans as I have never seen a fan/team love affair like 2006. Offensively right there with the ’99 team as David Wright/Jose Reyes had their coming out party, while Carlos Delgado and Carlos Beltran produced at a high level. Even complementary players like Paul Lo Duca, Jose Valentin, and Endy Chavez had incredible offensive seasons. The real key was solid up the middle defense, and a bullpen that was “lights out” from the sixth inning on. How else could you explain winning 97 games, and coming one win away from the World Series, with a rotation headed by two 40 year olds in El Duque and Tom Glavine? The real MVP’s of this team were Wagner, Heilman, Feliciano, Bradford, Sanchez, and yes, Guillermo Mota. That is, until the NLCS against St. Louis.
7. 2000: Amazing how the last pennant winning Mets team is towards the bottom of this list. This team was just a year removed from the offensive minded ’99 team, but this group was more centered on pitching. The starting rotation had two aces (Hampton/Leiter), and solid seasons from Rick Reed, Bobby Jones, and surprise fifth starter Glendon Rusch. Losing John Olerud hurt, but Piazza and Alfonzo led the team offensively, and they got just enough from the rest of the supporting cast. Like the ’06 team the bullpen featured four top notch relievers in Wendell, Cook, Franco, and Benitez. This is the prototypical team where the sum is greater than its parts. Most everyone agrees this was one of the grittiest teams in Mets history. Put this team’s grit with the ’06 versions talent and you have a World Champion.
8. 1990- A forgotten team because it came at the tail end of the eighties run. It featured two Cy Young Award winners (Gooden Viola), David Cone as a three starter, and so much starting pitching that neither Bob Ojeda or Ron Darling, big parts of other teams rotations in the coming years, couldn’t get consistent starts. The offense was good, but inconsistent, as Strawberry turned a difficult start into a solid campaign (37 homers, 108 RBI). A key was when Bud Harrelson inserted Dave Magadan into the lineup that June. He started hitting, and never stopped, nearly winning the NL batting title. I also think Davey Johnson got a raw deal as he was fired 42 games into the season. The team would go on a huge winning streak that June, something that I believe was inevitable due to their talent. Their Pythagorean Record was 98-64, which would have given them the NL East title. Could make a point they are better than the 2000 team, but had to knock them down because they underachieved.
9. 1985: I believe this team was the Mets version of the eighties Chicago Bulls before Pippen and Grant came into their own. Doc Gooden played Jordan (24-4, 1.52), while Keith Hernandez, Darryl Strawberry, and Gary Carter provided enough offense to win 98 games. Offensively there were holes at second, short, third, and when Strawberry was injured, the outfield. Davey Johnson started to incorporate the young pitchers like Aguilera and Fernandez into the rotation, and Ron Darling had a decent year. The bullpen was a disaster as Jesse Orosco and Doug Sisk had lousy seasons, although Roger McDowell picked up the slack when he was called up from Tidewater. Good team, but their offense is one of the weakest of the group.
10. 2008: How many teams get elite offensive seasons from four of their starting eight? This team did as Reyes, Wright, Beltran, and Delgado keyed an offense that scored more runs than the ’86 championship team. The starting rotation was decent, with Johan Santana playing a modern day ‘85 Gooden in the second half. Its Achilles heel was the bullpen, as well as managers (Randolph/Manuel) that didn’t understand the importance of lefty/righty matchups, or bullpen roles. Once Billy Wagner was lost in August the 2008 season went down in flames. Give me almost any other bullpen in team history, and this group probably wins 95 games and makes the playoffs.
1. 1988 - Cream of the crop in Mets history. Best pitching staff in team history as only the 1968 team gave up less runs in a 162 games season, and that was the year of the pitcher. David Cone won 20 games, Ron Darling had his best season, and how many teams could say Sid Fernandez was their fifth starter? Doc Gooden was beginning to decline, but still won 18 games. Unlike the ’86 title team they had a dominant closer as Randy Myers had 26 saves and a 1.72 ERA. Offensively they had two MVP candidates (Strawberry/McReynolds), and their bench was so deep that injuries to Keith Hernandez, and the steep decline by Gary Carter was offset by Dave Magadan, and the occasional Mackey Sasser start. Gregg Jefferies infused some life into the offense late that year (.321, 6, 17 in 118 PA). If this team performed offensively as they did in ’87 it would be the ’88 Mets, not ’98 Yankees, that won the most games in baseball history. They still won 100 games despite going 44-39 throughout the summer. How they lost to the Dodgers should be part of an A&E mystery series.
2. 1986- Do I need to wax poetic about this team? 108 wins, four starters with 15+ victories, and a lineup that scored over 700 runs for the first time in team history. This was Lenny Dykstra‘s best “non steroid” season (.822 OPS, more walks than strikeouts), Ray Knight had a bounce back year, and there was the ultimate super sub, Kevin Mitchell, off the bench. The 1989 National League MVP couldn’t crack this starting lineup. It wasn’t the best of seasons for Darryl Strawberry, but it didn’t matter. The reason why I put this team a notch below ’88 is because their overall staff wasn’t as strong. The difference between the ’88 team, and the next best, was a wide margin. Houston was the equal of the ’86 Mets, and the NLCS proved as much. If the ’88 team won a championship, especially over Oakland, this wouldn’t even be a debate.
3. 1987- If the pitching staff stayed healthy this might have been the best Mets team of all time. 823 runs scored was a team record held until 1999. Strawberry and Howard Johnson were 30/30 members, while Kevin McReynolds (29 homers, 95 RBI) wasn’t’ too shabby on both sides of the ball. This was the year of the juiced ball (precursor of the steroid era), as they hit 192 homers. Tim Teufel was an underrated member of this squad posting a .944 OPS with 14 homers and 61 RBI in just 350 plate appearances. The downfall was that every starting pitcher was injured at some point. Both Roger McDowell and Jesse Orosco struggled out of the bullpen as well. If not for journeyman Terry Leach winning 7 games in the rotation they may not have sniffed a pennant race with the Cardinals. Still, this is a very strong edition in team history. In my opinion, a baseball version of a Greek Tragedy.
4. 1969- I was tempted to drop this team down behind the ’99 club (a personal favorite), but the pitching is too good. Hall of Fame ace in Tom Seaver, Jerry Koosman‘s career year (17-9, 2.28), and a bullpen that included Ron Taylor, Tug McGraw, and Nolan Ryan. The issue is the offense, which averaged less than four runs a game. Cleon Jones was the only player to have a standout season, although midseason acquisition Donn Clendenon certainly did his part (11 homers, 37 RBI). This team won on its pitching staff, and the managing of Gil Hodges, who used the platoon masterfully.
5. 1999- One of my favorite all time teams. I will never forget what a fun summer it was as they went on a 55-27 run from June 4th to September 4th. Sure, the late September losing streak was painful, but it made that last weekend against the Pirates, and the one game playoff with Cincinnati, a worthwhile experience. Everyone remembers “the best infield ever,” but offensively this team was loaded with players that got on base. John Olerud and Rickey Henderson both had OBP over 42%, Mike Piazza hit 40 homers, Robin Ventura had a MVP season (32 homers, 117 RBI), and Edgardo Alfonzo hit 27 homers with 108 RBI. The key was the supporting cast as Roger Cedeno hit .313 with 66 stolen bases, Darryl Hamilton hit .339 after a July 31st trade from Colorado, Benny Agbayani had an .888 OPS, and Rey Ordonez drove in 60 runs from the eight hole. The pitching was spotty, but Al Leiter and Rick Reed were big game pitchers, and Kenny Rogers won five big games down the stretch. It was the work of the bullpen, anchored by Armando Benitez, who had arguably his best season in New York (14.8 strikeouts per nine innings) with 22 saves after John Franco went down with an injury. They were a hair away from forcing Game 7 against Atlanta, and would have had a better shot of beating the Yankees than the 2000 edition.
6. 2006- This team holds a special place in the hearts of Mets fans as I have never seen a fan/team love affair like 2006. Offensively right there with the ’99 team as David Wright/Jose Reyes had their coming out party, while Carlos Delgado and Carlos Beltran produced at a high level. Even complementary players like Paul Lo Duca, Jose Valentin, and Endy Chavez had incredible offensive seasons. The real key was solid up the middle defense, and a bullpen that was “lights out” from the sixth inning on. How else could you explain winning 97 games, and coming one win away from the World Series, with a rotation headed by two 40 year olds in El Duque and Tom Glavine? The real MVP’s of this team were Wagner, Heilman, Feliciano, Bradford, Sanchez, and yes, Guillermo Mota. That is, until the NLCS against St. Louis.
7. 2000: Amazing how the last pennant winning Mets team is towards the bottom of this list. This team was just a year removed from the offensive minded ’99 team, but this group was more centered on pitching. The starting rotation had two aces (Hampton/Leiter), and solid seasons from Rick Reed, Bobby Jones, and surprise fifth starter Glendon Rusch. Losing John Olerud hurt, but Piazza and Alfonzo led the team offensively, and they got just enough from the rest of the supporting cast. Like the ’06 team the bullpen featured four top notch relievers in Wendell, Cook, Franco, and Benitez. This is the prototypical team where the sum is greater than its parts. Most everyone agrees this was one of the grittiest teams in Mets history. Put this team’s grit with the ’06 versions talent and you have a World Champion.
8. 1990- A forgotten team because it came at the tail end of the eighties run. It featured two Cy Young Award winners (Gooden Viola), David Cone as a three starter, and so much starting pitching that neither Bob Ojeda or Ron Darling, big parts of other teams rotations in the coming years, couldn’t get consistent starts. The offense was good, but inconsistent, as Strawberry turned a difficult start into a solid campaign (37 homers, 108 RBI). A key was when Bud Harrelson inserted Dave Magadan into the lineup that June. He started hitting, and never stopped, nearly winning the NL batting title. I also think Davey Johnson got a raw deal as he was fired 42 games into the season. The team would go on a huge winning streak that June, something that I believe was inevitable due to their talent. Their Pythagorean Record was 98-64, which would have given them the NL East title. Could make a point they are better than the 2000 team, but had to knock them down because they underachieved.
9. 1985: I believe this team was the Mets version of the eighties Chicago Bulls before Pippen and Grant came into their own. Doc Gooden played Jordan (24-4, 1.52), while Keith Hernandez, Darryl Strawberry, and Gary Carter provided enough offense to win 98 games. Offensively there were holes at second, short, third, and when Strawberry was injured, the outfield. Davey Johnson started to incorporate the young pitchers like Aguilera and Fernandez into the rotation, and Ron Darling had a decent year. The bullpen was a disaster as Jesse Orosco and Doug Sisk had lousy seasons, although Roger McDowell picked up the slack when he was called up from Tidewater. Good team, but their offense is one of the weakest of the group.
10. 2008: How many teams get elite offensive seasons from four of their starting eight? This team did as Reyes, Wright, Beltran, and Delgado keyed an offense that scored more runs than the ’86 championship team. The starting rotation was decent, with Johan Santana playing a modern day ‘85 Gooden in the second half. Its Achilles heel was the bullpen, as well as managers (Randolph/Manuel) that didn’t understand the importance of lefty/righty matchups, or bullpen roles. Once Billy Wagner was lost in August the 2008 season went down in flames. Give me almost any other bullpen in team history, and this group probably wins 95 games and makes the playoffs.
Top 10 Yankees teams of all time
1927- Probably the top team on any list, regardless of how you slice it. “Murderers Row” outscored the next highest AL team by 131 runs. Ruth out homered every team in baseball with 60. Gehrig would win the MVP with 47 homers and 175 RBI. How many relievers win 19 games? Wilcey Moore went 19-7, with 13 saves, while Waite Hoyt paced the starting rotation with 22 wins. This team swept Pittsburgh in the World Series, and was heads and shoulders better than its competition. I don’t care what era you compare it to, this is the cream of the crop.
2. 1998- There will be some that will say I am showing my age by picking this edition of the Yankees over some in the thirties, forties, and fifties. Just like their ’27 counterparts, the ’98 Yankees were so far superior to their competition, winning 114 regular season games, and finishing 22 games better than second place Boston. Unlike the ’27 team, they needed to go through two rounds of playoffs before reaching the World Series. They were tested by Cleveland, and needed to win a pivotal Game 4 in the ALCS. Instead of the prototypical power of the decade, the Yankees offense was balanced, with each starter compiling an OBP over .350. The rotation saw each member win double digit games, paced by David Cone‘s 20 wins. Of course, the best closer in baseball history saved 36 ballgames, and was setup by the best middle relievers in the game in Jeff Nelson and Mike Stanton. Not a weakness on the team.
3. 1939- This team won a fourth World Series in a row, and might have been the best of the thirties dynasty as they swept Cincinnati in the World Series. Outscored their opponents by 411 runs- more than the ’27 squad- led by Joe DiMaggio and his .381 batting average. Five other players – Bill Dickey, Joe Gordon, Red Rolfe, Charlie Keller, and George Selkirk- had an OPS over .850. This was Gehrig’s final season, and his health limited him to just eight games. Red Ruffing led the way with 20 wins, and the team led the American League in ERA by a wide margin. Repeating is tough, winning four in a row even tougher, and doing this while losing Gehrig, their heart and soul, is nearly impossible.
4. 1961- Obviously this is remembered for the Maris/Mantle homerun chase, but this team had to earn its pennant as Detroit won 101 games that season. Aside from the two big guys (who accounted for 33% of the scoring) it wasn’t the best offensive team of this group. I think the pitching gets overlooked because of the homeruns, as Whitey Ford, Ralph Terry, and Bill Stafford were a formidable threesome. Luis Arroyo anchored the bullpen with 29 saves. The most impressive part about this team is they beat Cincinnati in five games to win the World Series without Mantle, who was limited due to an injury.
5. 1932- Scored over 1,000 runs which was still impressive even though it was an offensive year. Ruth and Gehrig weren’t as dominant as 1927, but the complementary players like Bill Dickey, Ben Chapman, and Tony Lazzari were more than solid supporting cast. The fact that the pitchers were a half a run better than everyone else is impressive. They were the only American League team with an ERA under 4.00. Shouldn’t be a surprise as Lefty Gomez, Red Ruffing, Johnny Allen, and George Pipgras all won over 15 games. The World Series with the Cubs wasn’t very competitive as they swept them in four games. This was the same World Series where many claim Ruth called his home run in Game 3.
6. 1953- This group was the fifth and final title of the late forties/early fifties dynasty and did it with tons of pitching. Team ERA of 3.20. Whitey Ford anchored the rotation, and Johnny Sain/Allie Reynolds played the roles of reliever, closer, and starter. Not an overpowering offense, but very balanced from top to bottom. A 21 year old kid by the name of Mickey Mantle was just coming into his own. Yogi Berra had 27 homers and 108 RBI. Might be the most balanced team of the aforementioned five titles. They beat talented Dodgers in seven games, a theme that will be a big part of the back half of this list.
7. 1956- Arguably Mantle’s best year of his career (52, 130, .353) as he won the Triple Crown. Yogi Berra and Moose Skowron combined for over 50 homers and 200 RBI. Won the American League over Cleveland, who had a “big three” of Herb Score, Early Wynn, and Bob Lemon. Avenged the Dodgers ’55 World Series title by beating them in classic seven game series, highlighted by Don Larsen‘s perfect game.
8. 1978- I believe this team was better than their ’77 counterparts, even though they needed to make a furious comeback, and beat Boston in Game 163 to win the division. Many forget Los Angeles had them in a 2-0 hole in the World Series, only to lose four straight. Guidry went 25-3, Gossage/Lyle gave them two closers to finish out ballgames, and the offense did just enough behind Mr. October. Perhaps the 1977 squad was better statistically, but the ’78 team had more talent, and had to overcome so much more adversity, that I give them the nod.
9. 1949- The first of five straight titles. This team had to beat out the Red Sox by one game during the “summer of 49.” Even more impressive is they did this without the services of DiMaggio, who sat out the first two months with heel problems. Yogi Berra (20, 91, .277) and Tommy Henrich (24, 85, .287) paced the offense. An outstanding rotation that included Vic Raschi, Eddie Lopat, Allie Reynolds, and Tommy Bryne that combined for 68 wins. Joe Page won 13 and save 27 games out of the bullpen. After leading for much of the year they beat Boston at Yankee Stadium the last two days of the season to win the pennant. The most impressive part is beating a talented Brooklyn Dodgers team in five games during the World Series.
10. 1962- What I like about this team is they were at the end of their run and beat a better San Francisco team in the World Series. This was the classic Game 7 where the Yanks won 1-0 and Willie McCovey lined out to Bobby Richardson to end it. Yes, they were lucky in the World Series (rainouts, Mays not scoring from first in Game 7, McCovey at bat), but still won the American League comfortably over Minnesota. A classic example of how winning players with experience are invaluable.
2. 1998- There will be some that will say I am showing my age by picking this edition of the Yankees over some in the thirties, forties, and fifties. Just like their ’27 counterparts, the ’98 Yankees were so far superior to their competition, winning 114 regular season games, and finishing 22 games better than second place Boston. Unlike the ’27 team, they needed to go through two rounds of playoffs before reaching the World Series. They were tested by Cleveland, and needed to win a pivotal Game 4 in the ALCS. Instead of the prototypical power of the decade, the Yankees offense was balanced, with each starter compiling an OBP over .350. The rotation saw each member win double digit games, paced by David Cone‘s 20 wins. Of course, the best closer in baseball history saved 36 ballgames, and was setup by the best middle relievers in the game in Jeff Nelson and Mike Stanton. Not a weakness on the team.
3. 1939- This team won a fourth World Series in a row, and might have been the best of the thirties dynasty as they swept Cincinnati in the World Series. Outscored their opponents by 411 runs- more than the ’27 squad- led by Joe DiMaggio and his .381 batting average. Five other players – Bill Dickey, Joe Gordon, Red Rolfe, Charlie Keller, and George Selkirk- had an OPS over .850. This was Gehrig’s final season, and his health limited him to just eight games. Red Ruffing led the way with 20 wins, and the team led the American League in ERA by a wide margin. Repeating is tough, winning four in a row even tougher, and doing this while losing Gehrig, their heart and soul, is nearly impossible.
4. 1961- Obviously this is remembered for the Maris/Mantle homerun chase, but this team had to earn its pennant as Detroit won 101 games that season. Aside from the two big guys (who accounted for 33% of the scoring) it wasn’t the best offensive team of this group. I think the pitching gets overlooked because of the homeruns, as Whitey Ford, Ralph Terry, and Bill Stafford were a formidable threesome. Luis Arroyo anchored the bullpen with 29 saves. The most impressive part about this team is they beat Cincinnati in five games to win the World Series without Mantle, who was limited due to an injury.
5. 1932- Scored over 1,000 runs which was still impressive even though it was an offensive year. Ruth and Gehrig weren’t as dominant as 1927, but the complementary players like Bill Dickey, Ben Chapman, and Tony Lazzari were more than solid supporting cast. The fact that the pitchers were a half a run better than everyone else is impressive. They were the only American League team with an ERA under 4.00. Shouldn’t be a surprise as Lefty Gomez, Red Ruffing, Johnny Allen, and George Pipgras all won over 15 games. The World Series with the Cubs wasn’t very competitive as they swept them in four games. This was the same World Series where many claim Ruth called his home run in Game 3.
6. 1953- This group was the fifth and final title of the late forties/early fifties dynasty and did it with tons of pitching. Team ERA of 3.20. Whitey Ford anchored the rotation, and Johnny Sain/Allie Reynolds played the roles of reliever, closer, and starter. Not an overpowering offense, but very balanced from top to bottom. A 21 year old kid by the name of Mickey Mantle was just coming into his own. Yogi Berra had 27 homers and 108 RBI. Might be the most balanced team of the aforementioned five titles. They beat talented Dodgers in seven games, a theme that will be a big part of the back half of this list.
7. 1956- Arguably Mantle’s best year of his career (52, 130, .353) as he won the Triple Crown. Yogi Berra and Moose Skowron combined for over 50 homers and 200 RBI. Won the American League over Cleveland, who had a “big three” of Herb Score, Early Wynn, and Bob Lemon. Avenged the Dodgers ’55 World Series title by beating them in classic seven game series, highlighted by Don Larsen‘s perfect game.
8. 1978- I believe this team was better than their ’77 counterparts, even though they needed to make a furious comeback, and beat Boston in Game 163 to win the division. Many forget Los Angeles had them in a 2-0 hole in the World Series, only to lose four straight. Guidry went 25-3, Gossage/Lyle gave them two closers to finish out ballgames, and the offense did just enough behind Mr. October. Perhaps the 1977 squad was better statistically, but the ’78 team had more talent, and had to overcome so much more adversity, that I give them the nod.
9. 1949- The first of five straight titles. This team had to beat out the Red Sox by one game during the “summer of 49.” Even more impressive is they did this without the services of DiMaggio, who sat out the first two months with heel problems. Yogi Berra (20, 91, .277) and Tommy Henrich (24, 85, .287) paced the offense. An outstanding rotation that included Vic Raschi, Eddie Lopat, Allie Reynolds, and Tommy Bryne that combined for 68 wins. Joe Page won 13 and save 27 games out of the bullpen. After leading for much of the year they beat Boston at Yankee Stadium the last two days of the season to win the pennant. The most impressive part is beating a talented Brooklyn Dodgers team in five games during the World Series.
10. 1962- What I like about this team is they were at the end of their run and beat a better San Francisco team in the World Series. This was the classic Game 7 where the Yanks won 1-0 and Willie McCovey lined out to Bobby Richardson to end it. Yes, they were lucky in the World Series (rainouts, Mays not scoring from first in Game 7, McCovey at bat), but still won the American League comfortably over Minnesota. A classic example of how winning players with experience are invaluable.
Monday, February 13, 2012
Glory Days of the Red Sox/Yankees rivalry, and into the future.
From 2004-2009, and again in 2011, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees had the best teams in baseball hands-down. Starting in 2004, with the historic comeback by Boston against New York, with Boston's even more spectacular win in the World Series that year, for the first time in 86 years, and the New York Yankees' counter-move by signing Randy Johnson, possibly one of the best starting pitchers in baseball history the next year, the Sox/Yanks rivalry had never been more brutal. Both Boston and New York spent literally hundreds of million of dollars on upgrading and fine-tuning their teams with players like Randy Johnson, (Yankees) Daisuke Matsuzaka, (Red Sox) Johnny Damon, (Yankees, formerly Boston) and Curt Schilling (Red Sox), creating grossly overpowered teams that regularly clashed in colossal contests, pitchers like Randy Johnson, AKA "Big Unit," who struck out 20 batters in a game that he pitched with the Diamondbacks against the Reds in 2001, also pitching a perfect game against Atlanta in 2004, won the Cy Young Award 5 times, posted 4,875 strikeouts in his career, ended the Yankees dynasty in 2001, had a strikeout average of 10.59 per 9 innings, and accomplished so much on the field that Baseball America named him #3 on the top ten starting pitchers of all time, against hitters like Manny Ramirez, the Red Sox slugger that won the MVP award in the 2004 World Series, as of 2012, he is still playing, with 555 home runs in his career. By that point, the Red Sox and Yankees were the only teams that really mattered, especially going into 2006 and 2007, when the Sox won the World Series again, taking the title from the Colorado Rockies. However, as the whole Boston-New York drama was dominating the baseball headlines, other teams, especially the Philadelphia Phillies, were rising to contention. The Phillies offensive power was already starting to make noise as early as 2003, and the following year, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard were added to the team, and shortly after, Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino and Cole Hamels. By 2007, as the Red Sox were making headlines with their second World Series win in 3 years, Philadelphia was considered "the team to beat." By 2008, the Phillies won the World Series, and lost in 2009 to the Yankees, who took their 27th title. This was the beginning of the end for the Francona Dynasty in Boston, as of February 2012, Boston has not won a playoff game since 2008, even though this was not expected at all. In all respects, the 2011 baseball season was predicted to be Boston vs. Philadelphia in the World Series, as the Boston Globe called the 2011 Red Sox the "best Sox team ever." The addition of Adrian Gonzales and Carl Crawford made the Red Sox the AL favorite, and the Phillies, with their star-studded rotation of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt, not to mention thier stellar hitting power, were by far the NL favorite. Fast-forward 162 games, and a totally different picture emerged. Boston, in the biggest choke in history, collapsed so spectacularly that one might never have guessed that the Curse of the Bambino was ever broken at all. They lost 25 games in September, and missed the playoffs completely, despite their power and ability. The Phillies did little better, losing to the Cardinals in the NLDS, even after winning 102 games. Philadelphia is facing the problem of an ageing lineup in 2012, and now that the NL East has become far more competitive, with the Miami Marlins, Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves improving dramatically, the Nationals are only an ace pitcher or two from becoming a dyansty-level team, the Marlins now have one of the most ferocious starting rotations in baseball, and the Braves are still potent, Philadelphia could miss the playoffs for the first time in 6 seasons. It's worth mentioning that the Nationals have the building blocks for a multi-championship dynasty on the level of something not seen since Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettite, Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada. They have their own 'Core Four," and a very potent offense, and should be able to seriously contend this year for their first trip to the postseason in their only 7-year history, but next year, if, say, the Nationals sign Matt Cain, Cole Hamels and another power hitter, all three of which come onto the free-agent market for 2013, the Nationals will have a godly team. They'll have a team that echos of the 1998 Yankees or the 1998 Braves, winners of 114 and 108 games, respectively, and possibly be one of those "once in a generation" lineups that people who see them in 2013 will still be talking about them in 2030. Hang tight, we'll see where this goes.
Baseball Legends: 1998 Atlanta Braves- 106 wins (2nd to Yankees, 114 wins)
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Who will the Rangers keep if not both?
Over the weekend, the Rangers and their breakout acquisition of 2012, catcher Mike Napoli, avoided arbitration with a one-year, $9.4 million contract for 2012. The Rangers and Napoli were reportedly discussing a multi-year deal prior to this agreement, and by getting this deal out of the way, they can continue to do so without an arbitration hearing looming. With Napoli now signed, the Rangers are reportedly at their budgetary limit for 2012. While it remains to be seen what exactly that means for the present and future (particularly given the ambiguous role that the money from the team’s cable contract might play in the future), it does raise the question about how much room the Rangers have for multi-year extensions.
This issue reared its head earlier in the off-sesaon when the Rangers were said to be bidding on Prince Fielder, which lead some such as myself to speculate on whether the Rangers should sign Fielder or extend star outfielder Josh Hamilton, assuming such a choice was necessary. That issue went by the wayside when Fielder signed with Detroit, and the Rangers have put their extension talks with Hamilton on hold after his latest “incident.” However, both the Rangers and Hamilton will probably want to revisit a possible extension in the future. With that in mind, let’s pose the same question with Napoli as we did with Fielder: if the Rangers budget remains tight and they can only extend one of Napoli and Hamilton, which should they choose? Would it be better to choose neither?
I think it is fair to say that many see Josh Hamilton is the bigger star and better player than Napoli, and that is understandable. Still, a closer look yields results that may surprise some (although others not so much). I already discussed Hamilton’s likely value at greater length in the post comparing him with Fielder, so I will use more space for Napoli (although I will use updated offensive projections for Hamilton).
Napoli had a monster season in 2011 that I probably do not need detail for FanGraphs readers. One might think that while Napoli had a great 2011, it was far beyond anything he had done before, especially in terms of his batting average on balls in play. However, one could say pretty much the same thing about Hamilton’s tremendous 2010 season. That is why we turn to projection systems, which give us an idea of a player’s likely true-talent level by regressing different components the appropriate amount, weighting past seasons properly, adjusting for age, and so on.
How much better is Hamilton projected to be than Napoli with the bat? Well, according to the projections I’ve looked at, it is the other way around. Oliver’s updated projection sees Napoli as slightly better than Hamilton, .368 wOBA to a .365 wOBA. Both of those are about 25 runs above average over a full season. ZiPS (after converting the projections to wOBA) is even more favorable to Napoli, projecting Hamilton about the same as Oliver (.363 wOBA), but seeing Napoli as substantially better — .383, about 35 runs above average over a full season.
In the field, Hamilton is generally considered to be a good outfielder, although as a center fielder, he is probably a better left fielder, to modify a phrase from Bill James. Being generous to Hamilton, let’s say that he is good enough in the corners to cancel out the -7.5 runs per season positional adjustment.
Napoli has long been considered to be a very poor catcher (just ask Mike Scioscia). Catcher defense (including stuff like pitch framing) is tough to measure. Napoli did rate poorly prior to 2011, and that does not “go away,” but the Rangers (who initially saw him as a part-time catcher/DH when the first acquired him from Toronto) were pleasantly surprised when they saw him work out at catcher in Spring Training. Napoli ended up having a good year behind the plate according to one basic measure. That does not cancel out prior performance, but it does mean that we should be skeptical of claims that Napoli simply cannot play catcher. I would say that at the very worst he “cancels out” his positional adjustment, too, which would put him “even” with Hamilton in terms of position and fielding. That is being generous to Hamilton and hard on Napoli. Objectively, I would say that Napoli has a slight edge here, too.
One concern with catchers is the aging and attrition due to the demands of the position. Napoli did spend time on the disabled list this season (and he also is still recovering from an ankle injury suffered in the playoffs), and he will be 30 to start the 2012 season. However, as is well known, Josh Hamilton (who is about five months older than Napoli) is not exactly the Iron Horse. Over the last three seasons, Napoli has played in about 20 more games than Hamilton. I will not pretend to be able to project health, but despite the strain of playing catcher, I do not think it is crazy to think that given Hamilton’s injury history, Hamilton is not likely to play more or suffer less skill attrition than Napoli over the next few seasons. Saying that they are currently both about 75 percent playing-time players seems about right.
In between the fielding/positional and injury/aging discussion, one might point out that Napoli might not stick at catcher for more than a couple more years, and that he has no where else to go other than first and DH. That is worth considering, but keep in mind that Hamilton does not get much of an edge here. After all, he is basically a corner outfielder, and if his health problems force him to move off of that position, he has the same remaining options — first base and DH.
If you have been following along, you have probably already caught on that I see Hamilton and Napoli as approximately equal in projected value… if you give Hamilton all of the breaks. Using Oliver for offensive projections, assuming that Hamilton good fielding and Napoli’s bad fielding cancel out their positional adjustments, and seeing them as capable of 75 percent playing time, they are both probably both somewhere around four win players. However, if you use ZiPS and a less harsh evaluation of Napoli in the field, Napoli probably projects as at least a win better.
If the money is equal, the Rangers seem like they would be better off choosing Napoli over Hamilton if they can only extend one of them. Of course, we do not know what sort of money is being discussed with either. There have been rumors that Hamilton was looking for in the basic range of Jayson Werth‘s seven-year, $126 million contract with the Nationals. While that might justifiable, that seems at least as risky in Hamilton’s case as Werth’s. If the Rangers are already close to their budgetary limit, they probably should not push it.
On the other hand, I would not guarantee Napoli that sort of money, either. He projects to be as good or better than Hamilton, but he is a catcher who may age less-than-gracefully (although again, I do not think his situation in that respect is any worse than Hamilton’s, if for different reasons). I have not read many rumors about what Napoli and the Rangers have discussed, my guess is that it would be for substantially fewer years and dollars, which would, of course, only serve to make Napoli a better choice. Yesterday, Evan Grant tweeted that Napoli is asking for less than the four-year, $52 million Victor Martinez got from the Tigers before last season, which seems like a great deal.
Finally, while I would rather have Napoli over Hamilton given equal money, the overall context is not nearly that simple. Four years, $52 million for Napoli would be a good deal for the Rangers, and assuming that information is accurate, Napoli is asking for less than that. On the other hand, if they are right at their budgetary limit now, they might not have room for even that.
Moreover, it is not as if Hamilton and Napoli are the only players about whom the Rangers need to make decisions. To name just two key players among many, both Colby Lewis and especially Ian Kinsler (easily the most underrated Ranger) have contracts that expire after the 2012 season. The focus that people such as myself have put on “Hamilton or X” may simply form the larger budgetary decisions the Rangers are facing (although, again, I have not speculated on how the team’s TV contract may change things in the future).
Depending on what sort of contracts those players are looking for, the Rangers might be better off allocating their financial resources to multiple players such as Lewis and/or Kinsler. I acknowledge that the situation is more complex than the bulk of this post may imply. I would choose Napoli over Hamilton, but the Rangers might be better off going in a different direction entirely.
This issue reared its head earlier in the off-sesaon when the Rangers were said to be bidding on Prince Fielder, which lead some such as myself to speculate on whether the Rangers should sign Fielder or extend star outfielder Josh Hamilton, assuming such a choice was necessary. That issue went by the wayside when Fielder signed with Detroit, and the Rangers have put their extension talks with Hamilton on hold after his latest “incident.” However, both the Rangers and Hamilton will probably want to revisit a possible extension in the future. With that in mind, let’s pose the same question with Napoli as we did with Fielder: if the Rangers budget remains tight and they can only extend one of Napoli and Hamilton, which should they choose? Would it be better to choose neither?
I think it is fair to say that many see Josh Hamilton is the bigger star and better player than Napoli, and that is understandable. Still, a closer look yields results that may surprise some (although others not so much). I already discussed Hamilton’s likely value at greater length in the post comparing him with Fielder, so I will use more space for Napoli (although I will use updated offensive projections for Hamilton).
Napoli had a monster season in 2011 that I probably do not need detail for FanGraphs readers. One might think that while Napoli had a great 2011, it was far beyond anything he had done before, especially in terms of his batting average on balls in play. However, one could say pretty much the same thing about Hamilton’s tremendous 2010 season. That is why we turn to projection systems, which give us an idea of a player’s likely true-talent level by regressing different components the appropriate amount, weighting past seasons properly, adjusting for age, and so on.
How much better is Hamilton projected to be than Napoli with the bat? Well, according to the projections I’ve looked at, it is the other way around. Oliver’s updated projection sees Napoli as slightly better than Hamilton, .368 wOBA to a .365 wOBA. Both of those are about 25 runs above average over a full season. ZiPS (after converting the projections to wOBA) is even more favorable to Napoli, projecting Hamilton about the same as Oliver (.363 wOBA), but seeing Napoli as substantially better — .383, about 35 runs above average over a full season.
In the field, Hamilton is generally considered to be a good outfielder, although as a center fielder, he is probably a better left fielder, to modify a phrase from Bill James. Being generous to Hamilton, let’s say that he is good enough in the corners to cancel out the -7.5 runs per season positional adjustment.
Napoli has long been considered to be a very poor catcher (just ask Mike Scioscia). Catcher defense (including stuff like pitch framing) is tough to measure. Napoli did rate poorly prior to 2011, and that does not “go away,” but the Rangers (who initially saw him as a part-time catcher/DH when the first acquired him from Toronto) were pleasantly surprised when they saw him work out at catcher in Spring Training. Napoli ended up having a good year behind the plate according to one basic measure. That does not cancel out prior performance, but it does mean that we should be skeptical of claims that Napoli simply cannot play catcher. I would say that at the very worst he “cancels out” his positional adjustment, too, which would put him “even” with Hamilton in terms of position and fielding. That is being generous to Hamilton and hard on Napoli. Objectively, I would say that Napoli has a slight edge here, too.
One concern with catchers is the aging and attrition due to the demands of the position. Napoli did spend time on the disabled list this season (and he also is still recovering from an ankle injury suffered in the playoffs), and he will be 30 to start the 2012 season. However, as is well known, Josh Hamilton (who is about five months older than Napoli) is not exactly the Iron Horse. Over the last three seasons, Napoli has played in about 20 more games than Hamilton. I will not pretend to be able to project health, but despite the strain of playing catcher, I do not think it is crazy to think that given Hamilton’s injury history, Hamilton is not likely to play more or suffer less skill attrition than Napoli over the next few seasons. Saying that they are currently both about 75 percent playing-time players seems about right.
In between the fielding/positional and injury/aging discussion, one might point out that Napoli might not stick at catcher for more than a couple more years, and that he has no where else to go other than first and DH. That is worth considering, but keep in mind that Hamilton does not get much of an edge here. After all, he is basically a corner outfielder, and if his health problems force him to move off of that position, he has the same remaining options — first base and DH.
If you have been following along, you have probably already caught on that I see Hamilton and Napoli as approximately equal in projected value… if you give Hamilton all of the breaks. Using Oliver for offensive projections, assuming that Hamilton good fielding and Napoli’s bad fielding cancel out their positional adjustments, and seeing them as capable of 75 percent playing time, they are both probably both somewhere around four win players. However, if you use ZiPS and a less harsh evaluation of Napoli in the field, Napoli probably projects as at least a win better.
If the money is equal, the Rangers seem like they would be better off choosing Napoli over Hamilton if they can only extend one of them. Of course, we do not know what sort of money is being discussed with either. There have been rumors that Hamilton was looking for in the basic range of Jayson Werth‘s seven-year, $126 million contract with the Nationals. While that might justifiable, that seems at least as risky in Hamilton’s case as Werth’s. If the Rangers are already close to their budgetary limit, they probably should not push it.
On the other hand, I would not guarantee Napoli that sort of money, either. He projects to be as good or better than Hamilton, but he is a catcher who may age less-than-gracefully (although again, I do not think his situation in that respect is any worse than Hamilton’s, if for different reasons). I have not read many rumors about what Napoli and the Rangers have discussed, my guess is that it would be for substantially fewer years and dollars, which would, of course, only serve to make Napoli a better choice. Yesterday, Evan Grant tweeted that Napoli is asking for less than the four-year, $52 million Victor Martinez got from the Tigers before last season, which seems like a great deal.
Finally, while I would rather have Napoli over Hamilton given equal money, the overall context is not nearly that simple. Four years, $52 million for Napoli would be a good deal for the Rangers, and assuming that information is accurate, Napoli is asking for less than that. On the other hand, if they are right at their budgetary limit now, they might not have room for even that.
Moreover, it is not as if Hamilton and Napoli are the only players about whom the Rangers need to make decisions. To name just two key players among many, both Colby Lewis and especially Ian Kinsler (easily the most underrated Ranger) have contracts that expire after the 2012 season. The focus that people such as myself have put on “Hamilton or X” may simply form the larger budgetary decisions the Rangers are facing (although, again, I have not speculated on how the team’s TV contract may change things in the future).
Depending on what sort of contracts those players are looking for, the Rangers might be better off allocating their financial resources to multiple players such as Lewis and/or Kinsler. I acknowledge that the situation is more complex than the bulk of this post may imply. I would choose Napoli over Hamilton, but the Rangers might be better off going in a different direction entirely.
Washington Nationals World Series Scenario 2012
To think, the season started with people dreaming about how the Nationals could have been real contenders if only they hadn't been outbid for Prince Fielder by the Tigers. That all seems so funny now that the Nationals are celebrating their 2012 World Series Championship.
Yes, losing out on the chance to spend a boatload of cash on Prince Fielder could wind up being the greatest thing to ever happen to the National franchise. If not for all that extra cash lying around, the Nats never would have been able to afford Edwin Jackson. That move unto itself panned out great since they were spot on about him having a flaw in his delivery that they could easily fix. And fix it they did, as his line of 17-8 record, 3.10 ERA and 185 strikeouts in 214 innings of work proved. But the cherry on top was that Jackson's presence made John Lannan expendable, leading to him being packaged off to Minnesota so that they could finally get their hands on Denard Span. After that, everything just fell into place.
Span gave the Nats the center fielder and leadoff man they desperately needed. With him speeding around the outfield sparing the revamped Washington pitching staff from Jayson Werth in center and giving the powerful Nats lineup a real tablesetter for once, the Nationals offense jumped from one of the worst in the National League to one of the top five in the Senior Circuit. Of course, that sort of buries the lead doesn't it?
Span's presence opened up the roster flexibility for the Nats, but the real star leading the charge was none other than Bryce Harper, but you knew that already since he was the unanimous NL Rookie of the Year after unexpectedly winning the starting right field spot out of training camp, with Werth shifting to left and Mike Morse moving to first base. A lot of people thought it was a mistake to hand Harper a big league job at such a tender age, but his .311 average, 36 homers and 124 RBIs begged to differ. Those are the kind of numbers that should have given him a better shot at taking home the MVP too, but after that disastrous All-Star weekend press conference, the BBWAA couldn't get over their own hurt feelings to make it happen. But that's neither here nor there. The point is Mike Rizzo's bold decision making set the Nationals up for this unprecedented success.
Everyone pointed to the Harper promotion as the textbook example of Rizzo's genius, but his true master stroke was the way he handled Stephen Strasburg. Competing for a championship while also trying to keep your staff ace on a strict 160-inning limit is no small task. Instead of letting Strasburg burn through his innings by mid-August, Rizzo made the unprecedented decision to "demote" Strasburg to the minors for the month of July so he could rest up and preserve his arm for the stretch run. And preserve it they did as the Nats enjoyed Strasmas come early by way of his blistering 1.34 ERA and 12.60 K/9 rate after his recall. Just imagine what he would have done had he not been on that strick 100-pitch count though.
That may have been an overly cautious approach, but it paid off handsomely since Stephen finished the season with 158 innings pitched. Paying off more handsomely though was Rizzo finally throwing caution to the wind by allowing Strasburg to pitch in the post-season with no limitations. A World Series MVP later and I think we can all agree that Rizzo made the right call, even if it meant putting an extra 37 innings of work on his young stud's arm.
The temptation all along was to call the Nats some kind of Cinderella, which they were, but with their success being so firmly placed on the backs of their young stars, everyone stopped wondering when the clock would strike midnight for these upstarts and started asking how many years they are going to remain the belle of the ball.
Will Philadelphia deliver in 2012?
For much of the past decade, the Philadelphia Phillies had one of the best offenses in baseball. But that was not the case last season, and the biggest question facing the Phillies this season is whether the offense rebounds, or continues a regression that could threaten to leave them on the outside of the postseason for the first time in six seasons.
Philadelphia’s offense began to make some noise in 2002 and 2003, and in 2004, the core of their playoff teams began to take shape. Jimmy Rollins, Placido Polanco and Pat Burrell were already on hand to start the season, and then Chase Utley came along in May and Ryan Howard in September. The group would finish in the top six in wOBA in 2004, 2005 and 2006 before punching up to second-best in the game in 2007. By 2007, Shane Victorino was on hand, and ’07 was the season that Jayson Werth stormed onto the scene as well, with a nifty .385 wOBA. That season, their wRC+ of 107 as a team was fourth-highest in the game. It would also be their pinnacle as an offense, as would be their .354 wOBA.
While the offense slumped the following season — their World Series championship season — they came raring back in 2009, placing fifth in both wOBA and wRC+. But the past two years have seen the start of a decline. To wit:
After placing fifth in both categories in 2009, the team dropped out of the top 10 in ’10, and the descent back to the middle of the pack continued unabated last season. And the Phillies have done very little to bring new faces to the mix. Yes, they were smart to wait out Jimmy Rollins and get him back in the fold given the other alternatives, but the team’s other prominent free-agent signees on the position player side — Jim Thome, Laynce Nix and Ty Wigginton — aren’t going to bring much to the table. Thome should be good, but back in the National League he will have a limited role, and neither of the other two compiled a wOBA better than .322 last season. Any improvement will have to come internally.
Looking at xBABIP, there is some hope that the Phils will see better results this season:
Aside from Hunter Pence, that’s a whole lot of BABIP underperformance. There’s a good chance that some of those numbers will even out this season. But will they be enough to turn the Phillies back into a powerhouse offense? Doubtful.
The other problem with the lack of fresh faces is that the returning faces aren’t all that fresh. As Joe Posnanski reminded us last week, the chances of putting up a truly elite season go south once players go north of age 30. And that’s a big problem for the Phillies. The team has led the Majors in batter age in each of the past two seasons, and they figure to be at or near the top of that list again this season. Using Baseball-Reference’s method for calculating batter age (which is just at-bats + games played) and cribbing together both Bill James and FANS projections for the 14 Phillies hitters on the 40-man roster that figure to get the lion share of playing time, you get a team batter age of 31.92 years. That’s older than the club’s league-leading totals from 2010 (31.8) and ’11 (31.5).
The 31.92 figure includes 335 at-bats from 24-year old Domonic Brown, which at this juncture is probably a bit optimistic. The only other under-30 batters in the group are Pence, Michael Martinez and John Mayberry. And while Mitchel Lichtman points out over at the Book blog that the curve may need to shift to the right by a year to a year and a half, most of the Phillies hitters would still be on the down side of that slope. Victorino is 31 this year, Howard 32 and Rollins, Ruiz and Utley 33. The new guys aren’t much help either. At 31, Nix will be the youngest.
So will an aging offense that is already in decline drag down Philadelphia as they hunt for a sixth-straight playoff berth? Looking at the rest of the division, the Mets pitching will remain a cover-your-eyes mess, but the Braves, Marlins and Nationals will all feature formidable rotations, especially if Tommy Hanson, Josh Johnson and Stephen Strasburg turn out full seasons (or in Strasburg’s case, as full a season as the Nats will allow him). The Phillies might not end up facing elite pitchers every time out, but they didn’t last year, and still turned out a below-average offense.
Only one of the 32 teams to reach the playoffs over the past four seasons did so with a team wRC+ lower than 95. If the Phillies offense continues to decline that is a bar they may very well drop below. If they do, it will make it a lot harder for Philadelphia to reach the postseason. Their big three starters should be exemplary once again, but Joe Blanton may not be as good as Roy Oswalt and Vance Worley will be hard-pressed to duplicate his rookie success. Combine that with an offense that ain’t what it used to be and improvements from the Nationals and Marlins as well as a still-strong Braves squad, and the National League East race might be a lot more hotly contested than it was last season.
Philadelphia’s offense began to make some noise in 2002 and 2003, and in 2004, the core of their playoff teams began to take shape. Jimmy Rollins, Placido Polanco and Pat Burrell were already on hand to start the season, and then Chase Utley came along in May and Ryan Howard in September. The group would finish in the top six in wOBA in 2004, 2005 and 2006 before punching up to second-best in the game in 2007. By 2007, Shane Victorino was on hand, and ’07 was the season that Jayson Werth stormed onto the scene as well, with a nifty .385 wOBA. That season, their wRC+ of 107 as a team was fourth-highest in the game. It would also be their pinnacle as an offense, as would be their .354 wOBA.
While the offense slumped the following season — their World Series championship season — they came raring back in 2009, placing fifth in both wOBA and wRC+. But the past two years have seen the start of a decline. To wit:
| Year | wOBA | Rnk | wRC+ | Rnk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 0.354 | 2 | 107 | 4 |
| 2008 | 0.337 | 8 | 99 | t-11 |
| 2009 | 0.340 | t-5 | 104 | 5 |
| 2010 | 0.328 | t-11 | 100 | t-11 |
| 2011 | 0.316 | 15 | 96 | t-13 |
Looking at xBABIP, there is some hope that the Phils will see better results this season:
| Player | BABIP | xBABIP | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rollins | 0.275 | 0.320 | 0.045 |
| Utley | 0.269 | 0.306 | 0.037 |
| Howard | 0.303 | 0.322 | 0.029 |
| Polanco | 0.292 | 0.322 | 0.029 |
| Nix | 0.284 | 0.312 | 0.028 |
| Mayberry | 0.293 | 0.315 | 0.022 |
| Victorino | 0.292 | 0.311 | 0.019 |
| Ruiz | 0.308 | 0.306 | -0.003 |
| Pence | 0.361 | 0.322 | -0.039 |
The other problem with the lack of fresh faces is that the returning faces aren’t all that fresh. As Joe Posnanski reminded us last week, the chances of putting up a truly elite season go south once players go north of age 30. And that’s a big problem for the Phillies. The team has led the Majors in batter age in each of the past two seasons, and they figure to be at or near the top of that list again this season. Using Baseball-Reference’s method for calculating batter age (which is just at-bats + games played) and cribbing together both Bill James and FANS projections for the 14 Phillies hitters on the 40-man roster that figure to get the lion share of playing time, you get a team batter age of 31.92 years. That’s older than the club’s league-leading totals from 2010 (31.8) and ’11 (31.5).
The 31.92 figure includes 335 at-bats from 24-year old Domonic Brown, which at this juncture is probably a bit optimistic. The only other under-30 batters in the group are Pence, Michael Martinez and John Mayberry. And while Mitchel Lichtman points out over at the Book blog that the curve may need to shift to the right by a year to a year and a half, most of the Phillies hitters would still be on the down side of that slope. Victorino is 31 this year, Howard 32 and Rollins, Ruiz and Utley 33. The new guys aren’t much help either. At 31, Nix will be the youngest.
So will an aging offense that is already in decline drag down Philadelphia as they hunt for a sixth-straight playoff berth? Looking at the rest of the division, the Mets pitching will remain a cover-your-eyes mess, but the Braves, Marlins and Nationals will all feature formidable rotations, especially if Tommy Hanson, Josh Johnson and Stephen Strasburg turn out full seasons (or in Strasburg’s case, as full a season as the Nats will allow him). The Phillies might not end up facing elite pitchers every time out, but they didn’t last year, and still turned out a below-average offense.
Only one of the 32 teams to reach the playoffs over the past four seasons did so with a team wRC+ lower than 95. If the Phillies offense continues to decline that is a bar they may very well drop below. If they do, it will make it a lot harder for Philadelphia to reach the postseason. Their big three starters should be exemplary once again, but Joe Blanton may not be as good as Roy Oswalt and Vance Worley will be hard-pressed to duplicate his rookie success. Combine that with an offense that ain’t what it used to be and improvements from the Nationals and Marlins as well as a still-strong Braves squad, and the National League East race might be a lot more hotly contested than it was last season.
2012 Braves breakdown
MLB Predictions: Breaking Down the 2012 Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves were a playoff team in 2011 until the final day of the season when they lost to the Philadelphia Phillies then were eliminated by the St Louis Cardinals in a one game playoff. After having a 9 1/2 game lead for the Wild Card on August 25th, the Braves blew their lead. There was good news for Atlanta though. Craig Kimbrel emerged as a closer and won the Rookie of the Year Award and newcomer Michael Bourn became the team’s table setter.
Looking forward to 2012 the Braves have some additional challenges to reach the playoffs. The National League East has improved dramatically. The Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals both made huge improvements while the Philadelphia Phillies look again to be the class of the division. Other than trading away Derek Lowe and not resigning Alex Gonzalez, the Braves have done nothing this offseason. The improved division could make it tough for the Braves to reach their 89 win total from a year before.
Tim Hudson is recovering from back surgery and could miss some time. When he does return, it is hard to say
how effective he will be. Chipper Jones will be 40 years old and is expected to be the teams number 3 hitter. He projects to hit around .280 with about 15 homeruns. Dan Uggla will bat 4th. His inconsistency matched with Jones’ age makes the middle of the lineup suspect. Freddie Freeman and Brian McCann should provide solid 5 and 6 hitters, but Jason Heyward is slated to bat 7th giving the team 3 left handers in a row. Role player Matt Diaz will help with this, but there are still question marks throughout the lineup. Heyward’s development could be one of the biggest factors in the Braves success in 2012. After finishing 2011 with a dismal .227 average and only 14 home runs, Atlanta needs him to step up and become the projected middle of the lineup hitter that he is projected to be.
Another question mark for the Braves will be the health of Jair Jurrjens. They need Jurrjens to pitch a full season and anchor a rotation that will probably include Tommy Hanson, Brandon Beachy, Mike Minor, and Randall Delgado until Hudson’s return. The bullpen has question marks as well. Will Kimbrel have a sophomore slump and do they have enough pieces to serve as set up men? Consistency in pitching could haunt the Braves all season in both the rotation and the bullpen.
While Michael Bourn is entering the prime of his career and should give the Braves one of the best leadoff hitters in the league, Martin Prado comes with questions. Will he be able to hit around the .300 mark again or will his .260 mark in 2011 predict what he hits in 2012? The Braves need both Bourn and Prado to get on base and put pressure on the opposing pitchers so that they make mistakes when pitching to Jones, Uggla, and Freeman. The Atlanta Braves come into 2012 a year older and not improved from their 2011 squad. With an improved division it stands to reason that they will take a step back. Look for the Braves to be a 84 win team in 2012 and finish in either second or third place out of the playoff picture. The long term prognosis of the Braves is no better. Their CEO announced a few weeks ago that they are not selling the team and have an “awful television contract” that is for 25 years. The team is being run more like a corporate business than a sports franchise where margins are more important than wins. Fans had better hold on tight to their glory days with Ted Turner and the teams of the 1990′s and early 2000′s.
Looking forward to 2012 the Braves have some additional challenges to reach the playoffs. The National League East has improved dramatically. The Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals both made huge improvements while the Philadelphia Phillies look again to be the class of the division. Other than trading away Derek Lowe and not resigning Alex Gonzalez, the Braves have done nothing this offseason. The improved division could make it tough for the Braves to reach their 89 win total from a year before.
Tim Hudson is recovering from back surgery and could miss some time. When he does return, it is hard to say
how effective he will be. Chipper Jones will be 40 years old and is expected to be the teams number 3 hitter. He projects to hit around .280 with about 15 homeruns. Dan Uggla will bat 4th. His inconsistency matched with Jones’ age makes the middle of the lineup suspect. Freddie Freeman and Brian McCann should provide solid 5 and 6 hitters, but Jason Heyward is slated to bat 7th giving the team 3 left handers in a row. Role player Matt Diaz will help with this, but there are still question marks throughout the lineup. Heyward’s development could be one of the biggest factors in the Braves success in 2012. After finishing 2011 with a dismal .227 average and only 14 home runs, Atlanta needs him to step up and become the projected middle of the lineup hitter that he is projected to be.Another question mark for the Braves will be the health of Jair Jurrjens. They need Jurrjens to pitch a full season and anchor a rotation that will probably include Tommy Hanson, Brandon Beachy, Mike Minor, and Randall Delgado until Hudson’s return. The bullpen has question marks as well. Will Kimbrel have a sophomore slump and do they have enough pieces to serve as set up men? Consistency in pitching could haunt the Braves all season in both the rotation and the bullpen.
While Michael Bourn is entering the prime of his career and should give the Braves one of the best leadoff hitters in the league, Martin Prado comes with questions. Will he be able to hit around the .300 mark again or will his .260 mark in 2011 predict what he hits in 2012? The Braves need both Bourn and Prado to get on base and put pressure on the opposing pitchers so that they make mistakes when pitching to Jones, Uggla, and Freeman. The Atlanta Braves come into 2012 a year older and not improved from their 2011 squad. With an improved division it stands to reason that they will take a step back. Look for the Braves to be a 84 win team in 2012 and finish in either second or third place out of the playoff picture. The long term prognosis of the Braves is no better. Their CEO announced a few weeks ago that they are not selling the team and have an “awful television contract” that is for 25 years. The team is being run more like a corporate business than a sports franchise where margins are more important than wins. Fans had better hold on tight to their glory days with Ted Turner and the teams of the 1990′s and early 2000′s.
Baseball Legends: 1998 Yankees
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[edit] Game log
Baseball Legends: 1997 Braves lineup
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| Outfielders
| Manager Coaches
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Baseball Legends: 2004 Red Sox team
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